Photo by Mark Stebnicki NC Farm Bureau via Pexels
Global agricultural total factor productivity (TFP), the ratio of agricultural output to input, is declining, and its rate of growth currently falls well below what is needed to meet projected demand by 2050. However, under the right conditions, regenerative agriculture can help reverse this trend, according to the 2026 Global Agricultural Productivity (GAP) Report, published by Virginia Tech’s Global Agricultural Productivity (GAP) Initiative. The report highlights that productivity grew at its slowest rate in 50 years between 2015 and 2024 and argues that regenerative practices that improve soil and ecosystem health could help restart TFP growth.
The Problem
Farmers are producing more, but only by using more land, fertilizer, machinery, and other resources.
The report notes that, amid challenges such as rising input costs, geopolitical supply chain disruptions, and accelerating climate stress, this input-intensive model is becoming increasingly untenable.
The Potential of Regenerative Agriculture
The 2026 GAP Report examines regenerative agriculture practices as a solution, including reduced and no-till, cover cropping, nutrient management, and adaptive grazing, analyzing their potential in three main ways:
- Input reduction: input efficiency gains that reduce input intensification without sacrificing output;
- Natural capital accumulation: gradually building up the farm’s natural assets, such as the soil, water, and biodiversity, which helps improve the productive capacity of existing farmland over time; and
- Output stabilization: reduces output variance under climate stress.
Of these, input reduction shows the strongest evidence and delivers the fastest returns. The natural capital accumulation and output stabilization routes take longer to yield results. However, barriers to scaling regenerative agriculture remain and real gains depend on strong policy and investment.
The report warns, “Without deliberate investment in measurement frameworks, data infrastructure, decision tools, and transition finance, regenerative agriculture will remain a collection of promising practices rather than a demonstrated contributor to restarting TFP growth.”