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A significant increase in greenhouse gas emissions and a major loss of forest and pasture land would be some of the results if biotechnology enhanced crops were banned in the United States, according to a new study.

The report from Purdue University, Indiana, examines the significance of crop yield loss if genetically modified crops (GMOs) were banned from U.S. farm fields, as well as how that decision would affect other parts of the economy. Without GMOs, crop yields would drop leading to higher food prices; more land would be needed to maintain production and changes in management practices (currently used with GM crops) would lead to increased greenhouse gas emissions.

The findings of the study, funded by the California Grain & Feed Association, will be published in the journal, AgBioForum, this spring.

Data was fed into the Purdue­-developed GTAP­BIO model, which has been used to examine economic consequences of changes to agricultural, energy, trade and environmental policies. The main conclusions were:

  • Lower crop production on existing cropland.
  • Reduction in U.S. net crop exports.
  • Forest and pasture land conversion to cropland and associated GHG emissions.
  • Higher US and global crop prices.
  • Increase in food prices.
  • Increases in pesticides and other inputs.

Eliminating all GMOs in the United States, the model showed that corn yields would decline on average by 11.2 percent; soybeans by 5.2 percent and cotton by 18.6 percent. To make up for that loss, approximately 102,000 hectares (252,041 acres) of U.S. forest and pasture would have to be converted to cropland and 1.1 million hectares (2.7 million acres) globally.

Greenhouse gas emissions would increase significantly because with lower crop yields, more land would be needed for agricultural production, and would have to be converted from pasture and forest.

With lower crop yields without GMO traits, commodity prices rise. Corn prices would increase as much as 28 percent and soybeans by 22 percent, according to the study. Consumers could expect food prices to increase by 1-2 percent, or $14 billion to $24 billion per year.