What does 2026 hold in store for U.S. Soy, given macro trends, shifting business dynamics, policy changes and long-term investments? Jim Sutter, CEO of the U.S. Soybean Export Council, highlights the forces he believes will shape U.S. soybean exports this year, including tighter supplies, advanced tools, stronger partnerships and an increased focus on sustainability. Read his perspective on the challenges and opportunities ahead.
Tighter Supplies, Smarter Tools and Stronger Partnerships
I. Expect Tightening Global Soy Balance and More Price Volatility
Globally, the soy complex story over the past few years has largely been about record production. In 2025-26, the difference is that the pace of production increase will drop.
Even if total global production clocks in at a new year-over-year high (likely), the slowing rate of production growth is unlikely to match the rising global demand for soy. This is part and parcel of a world increasingly hungry for protein and a long-term trend that is buoying the global soy marketplace for many years to come.
Indeed, recent low global soy prices combined with rising consumer demand have resulted in strong profit margins for protein producers worldwide over the past year, profits they have subsequently reinvested in infrastructure and growth, anticipating sustained long-term demand. I believe this will keep global protein growth at record levels year over year.
The short-term wild card with the potential to significantly impact this situation is the weather. We’ve had several back-to-back years of favorable conditions in both North and South America. Odds are we’re due for a significant weather event, and we’ve already been hearing about early weather concerns in South America’s prime soybean regions.
All told, even if we have another great growing year, I think we’re looking at a tighter supply-and- demand picture. Stack that on top of very good economics in global meat-producing industries and poor economics for soy producers, and I think there is a strong potential for more price volatility and higher prices in 2026.
II. A Better U.S.-China Relationship Will Stabilize U.S. Soy Exports
The U.S. and China are entering a new phase in our soy relationship, one that I hope will be more stable, more strategic and more mutually dependent than the headline cycles of the past twelve months.
China accounts for nearly half of all U.S. soybean exports, emphasizing how central the Chinese market remains to U.S. soybean farmers and the entire U.S. Soy value chain. But at the same time, China relies on imports for the vast majority of its soybean needs and purchases around 60 percent of global soybean trade to fuel its feed and food sectors. This makes secure supplies from partners like the U.S. a strategic necessity.
Yes, there are always going to be some differences of opinion between the world’s two largest economies, but neither country can afford to go back to the lose-lose relationship of the past year. We need each other.
Over the coming year, I predict a rebuilding of the U.S.-China soy relationship, which was put on hold in 2025, creating a stable platform for growth, expansion and new opportunities. Both countries have learned the benefits of diversification, and I expect this to continue.
III. Sustainability Will Continue to Drive U.S. Soy Demand
As global demand for sustainable, deforestation-free supply chains accelerates, 2026 is shaping up to be a year when U.S. Soy gains market share precisely because of our sustainability edge.
More feed, food and crush buyers are expected to move from “sustainability as a bonus” to “sustainability as a requirement,” and that shift will favor origins that can demonstrate performance at scale. Specifically, the European Union’s new Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) – even with its delayed implementation – will start to separate suppliers that can deliver verification and a low risk of deforestation from those that cannot, and U.S. Soy is positioned to be on the winning side of that divide.
As European and global customers adjust their supply chains, I predict that many buyers will pivot additional volume to U.S. Soy to de-risk compliance and protect market access using tools like the U.S. Soy Sustainability Assurance Protocol (SSAP) and our free “Sustainable U.S. Soy” (SUSS) and “Fed with Sustainable U.S. Soy” labeling programs.
The effort to capture U.S. Soy’s sustainability value with SSAP, launched in 2013 by USSEC, the American Soybean Association (ASA) and the United Soybean Board (USB), has already reaped rewards for U.S. Soy exports, especially in 2025. For 2026, I believe that trend will continue its upward trajectory.
IV. We’ll Get Smarter, More Efficient and Have Better Tools
Just as in the rest of the world, data-driven tools – including responsible use of artificial intelligence (AI) – are transforming soy exports.
I’ve been around long enough to remember two decades ago when the internet reshaped how business gets done; AI is the next evolution in that journey for global agriculture. At USSEC, AI is viewed as a tool – not a replacement for people – to help the team work smarter, faster and with greater precision on behalf of U.S. soybean farmers and our international customers.
For instance, we’ve recently introduced tools that make new, better actionable scientific insights into the true value of soybean meal in driving animal performance and profitability. These insights help nutritionists and feed manufacturers move toward value-based metrics that capture digestible amino acids, energy and other factors that truly reflect the quality of U.S. Soy.
As these innovations roll out, I predict we’ll see the adoption of a new ‘Gold Standard’ for how soybean and soybean meal value is measured – one that aligns scientific insight, animal performance and customer economics with better tools, better data and better outcomes.
V. The U.S. Soy Family Will Work Together More Effectively for Better Results
U.S. Soy is well-positioned to grow and improve our industry in 2026 by leaning even more heavily into what we already do best: working together!
In the year ahead, expect U.S. soybean farmers to have a more significant voice in a team-based model for U.S. Soy, where ASA, USB and USSEC play to their core strengths while staying tightly aligned on long-term goals for demand, profitability and sustainability. This kind of coordination will be essential as markets become more competitive, and customers ask tougher questions about value, reliability and environmental performance.
With each organization focused on its strengths – ASA on policy, USB on checkoff-driven innovation and USSEC on international marketing – I am confident that all bases are covered to maximize opportunities for U.S. Soy in 2026.
VI. Our Biggest Strength Will Remain – the U.S. Soy Farmer
One thing that won’t change in 2026: The strength the U.S. Soy family farm brings to our industry.
U.S. Soy farmers will continue to produce the world’s most sustainable, reliable and nutrient-rich soybeans in the world, backed by rigorous national sustainability goals and third-party verification. Their farm-level decisions – conservation practices, data-driven management and continuous improvement – are what enable U.S. Soy to deliver consistent quality, superior nutritional value and a lower carbon footprint. U.S. Soy farmers make USSEC’s work easier. By pairing an industry that boasts a world-class export and logistics system with the work farmers put in every day, every farming season and every generation, we will continue to deliver a supply chain that is dependable, cost-effective and resilient, even as global markets shift and new regulations reshape demand.
A Great Year Ahead for U.S. Soy Trade
I have no doubt that the next 12 months will test our agility, our collaboration and our ability to turn data, insight and relationships into real value for our stakeholders.
But change is not a one-year event; it is the new operating environment for USSEC and U.S. Soy. In 2025, we listened, learned and made adjustments that were not about checking a box. They set a new baseline for how we work together, how we deploy resources and how we create value for farmers, members and international customers in a more volatile world.
From evolving trade dynamics and global market trends to new sustainability requirements and rapid technology advances, I’m confident that U.S. Soy is entering 2026 not just from a position of strength — but also with a commitment from myself and the entire USSEC team to keep raising our game in how we compete, communicate and deliver.