Image by Mark Stebnicki
Global agricultural productivity growth – producing more output with the same or fewer inputs – has reached a plateau, finds a new report, hampering the world’s ability to sustainably feed a growing population.
Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth is widely regarded as a barometer of innovation in agriculture. However, the Global Agricultural Productivity (GAP) Report from Virginia Tech’s College of Agriculture and Life Sciences (CALS) shows that global TFP growth has fallen to just 0.76% over the past decade. This rate is significantly below the 2% target required to sustainably and profitably meet the demands of global agri-food systems. Factors contributing to this decline, according to the report, include lagging R&D investment, slower technology adoption and mounting climate pressures.
In the United States, the situation is even more concerning, as agricultural productivity growth has decreased, with an average annual decline of 0.05%.
“Stagnating agricultural productivity growth has real implications for U.S. farmers,” said Tom Thompson, professor and associate dean of the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences and director of CALS Global. “Without renewed gains, farmers won’t be able to make a sustainable living providing vital goods to the economy. We urgently need a step-change in public research spending and innovation systems so farmers have affordable, effective productivity-enhancing tools at their fingertips.”
Navigating Productivity Plateaus – Spotlight on the U.S
To ignite productivity growth, the 2025 GAP Report introduces the “TFP Growth Frontier”. This one-of-a-kind model aims to identify the causes of stagnation and to support decision-makers and investors in developing actionable solutions to build a more efficient, resilient and sustainable agricultural system.
The report illustrates how the model works by exploring the slowdown in U.S. productivity growth. Once a global productivity leader, growth has stalled over the last decade due to several factors, including diminishing returns from mature technologies, underinvestment in research, slowing adoption of advanced technologies and growing ecological constraints. The TFP Growth Frontier helps explain this trend and identifies policy and investment priorities that can address these challenges. These include:
- Reigniting public R&D investment;
- Strengthening the regulatory environment, and
- Fostering public-private collaboration to bridge the “valley of death” between research and widespread adoption of productivity-boosting tools and practices.
About the GAP Report
The Global Agricultural Productivity (GAP) Initiative at Virginia Tech mobilises and advocates for action and investment to boost agricultural productivity growth at all levels of production. Its goal is to create returns for farmers, society, the economy, and the environment.
The GAP Report is the heart of the GAP Initiative. This annual report uses publicly available data to interpret global trends in agricultural total factor productivity – a measure of how efficiently agricultural resources and inputs are used to produce output. It is the premier source for productivity data, analysis and policy recommendations that inspire action.