Economic Research Report No. (ERR-189) 78 pp, July 2015

by Sun Ling Wang, Paul Heisey, David Schimmelpfennig, and Eldon Ball

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service has published a new study examining the trends in U.S. agricultural productivity. It reports that since 1948, total U.S. agricultural output more than doubled. Over the same period, the U.S. population also more than doubled. The ability of the farm sector to feed far more people today while using less farmland than six decades ago is attributed to increases in agricultural productivity. However, slowing growth in U.S. crop yields during 1990-2000 has raised concerns about a possible productivity slowdown in the U.S. farm sector. Slower growth in productivity could affect food prices, food security, and the environment as farmers intensify use of land and chemicals to produce more output.

The report examines changes and trends in U.S. agricultural inputs (e.g., land and labor), output (e.g., crops and livestock), and productivity over the last six decades and the drivers behind productivity changes. In particular, it attempts to answer questions about a possible productivity slowdown and the ability of the U.S. farm sector to sustain productivity over the long term.